Well.....the number of holes will depend on the level of CO2 release, which is directly dependant on how much sugar is in would be wine.
What I would do is put the baloon on there with no holes, wait for the thing to blow up, then put one hole in it. If the baloon continues to inflate, then poke another and so on until the inflation reaches a neutral state (neither inflating or deflating).
Another option is to go buy a 2 dollar airlock at any homebrew shop......
Doesn't sound like you have all the tools you'll need to determine when it's done. You need a hydrometer. If you have one, that will tell you when the fermentation is complete.
How long it will take is dependant on how viable your yeast is......you did add yeast right?
Your questions are not all together simple to answer and are dependant on quite a few variables.....
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